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Foreign fighters have been captured by Kenyan police trying to sneak back across the border. The same 200 foriegners have been seen setting up defenses in a suburb 5 kms north of the AMISOM base last week and inside sources report that the leadership have ordered fighters to fall back to Ras Kamboni, a small al Qaeda-friendly port on the extreme southern coast of Somalia. Either way there are not many options for the foreign elements of al Shabaab. Recruitment and press ganging of children and youth from refugee camps continues but motivation, funds and the flow of supplies are tightening up.
From there it is assumed that either a last stand reminiscent of the 2006 operation or a covert marine evacuation to Kenya or Yemen would be the only other option.